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Autoliv
Jan Olsson, Vice President Research, Autoliv
What social/economic/technological trends do you think will have
the greatest impact on car design in 2018?
I see the following macro trends affecting us and also some trends in
the area of Automotive safety that are important:
The fast growth of car sales in developing countries like China and India
means that the number of accidents and fatalities are expected to grow.
The biggest growth will be in pedestrian accidents but also injuries to
occupants will grow. This growth will be balanced partly by the increase
of frontal and side air bags.
To reduce CO2 emissions, cars will become smaller with shorter deformation
distances which will increase problems with safety and compatibility.
New drivetrain combinations in new locations may not offer the same support
load carrier in frontal crash situations. New fuels may also introduce
new hazards.
Seniors are an active and growing group. Seniors are often victims of
traffic both as pedestrians and car occupants. Cars must therefore be
built taking account seniors’ fragility and their difficulties in
managing the complex traffic situation of the future.
The desire for stars in the different NCAP systems is still a strong drive
for increased safety in cars. All new systems will not be possible to
evaluate in the test and the number of tests performed can not grow to
match all the new potential systems offered on the market. Instead the
OEM or supplier will be requested to prove the benefit scientifically
of new safety systems before awarded a new star.
Transfer of traffic accident cost from the tax bill to the car insurance.
A clear political trend is that the financing of a cost should be transferred
to the origin of the cost. For traffic this means that the insurance premium
will increase and the insurance industry will become a more active player
in supporting introduction of new systems that have an influence on real
traffic safety.
What technologies will be key in 2018?
Seat belts and air bags will still be a very important technology
area in the future. The need to properly protect seniors and other car
occupants that are outside the average will increase.
CO2 demands will change how cars look and how they are propelled. Technologies
like active structures and technologies to manage different energy sources
in accidents will become important.
Technologies for cheap and efficient pedestrian protection that address
impaired drivers, affected by drowsiness, alcohol or drugs, will become
more important too.
What skills/specialisms will you need from engineers in 2018?
We’ll need similar skills as today and a passion for saving lives
in real-life traffic Skills in sensing technology and the algorithms for
making use of sensing data will be important too.
Next...
Bertrandt
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January 2008
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