| SEAT
Luc Donckerwolke, Director of Design at SEAT UK
What social/economic/technological trends do you think will have the greatest
impact on car design in 2018?
All trends are interactive, for instance the economical has an influence
on the social, and this automatically forces the technology to react.
For example, the make-up of families tends to define what cars will be
dominant in the market; if families disintegrate you will see automatically
a higher demand for compact cars. This will force the demand for comfortable
and safer cars than previously and will create a new sub-class.
I believe that the environmental theme is finally going to force consumers
to accept that technology will be focused on performance but no longer
dominantly sporty - rather respectful of the surrounding world: users,
pedestians, the ecological system...
This only can ensure the future of the individual transportation.
What technologies will be making the big advances in safety in 2018?
The main challenges in safety are those intended to provide protection
to the most vulnerable road users (mainly pedestrians and cyclists), as
well as to improve the compatibility between different kind of vehicles
in the case of a crash. All improvements will be done under the point
of view of the "integral safety" and the integration of all
the actors involved in Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Safety.
How will automotive engineers' working lives be different? What skills/specialisms
will be important?
The industry will need more innovative profiles. Not only oriented towards
the optimization and solution of existing problems but also predisposed
to create new challenges and generate challenges and risks which permit
increasing differentiation and competitivity.
In what ways will the powertrain technology differ?
By 2018 powertrain technology will probably experience a progressive evolution
rather than any revolutionary change. Stricter exhaust gas emissions standards,
already foreseen both in Europe and North America, will force the industry
to improve exhaust gas aftertreatment while tax legislation will become
ever more focused on greenhouse gas emissions, particularly CO2. This
change in fiscal policy will require much improved fuel efficiency brought
about by the downsizing of engine capacities coupled with turbocharging,
lower temperature and lean-burn combustion chamber technology, infinitely
variable engine timing, improved engine management systems, etc. coupled
to a move towards automatic and double-clutch transmissions. Diesel and
spark ignition engines will remain the overwhelming choice on cost and
efficiency grounds although the choice of fuel will depend upon local
market conditions and availability. Hybrid powertrain technology could
have a significant percentage of total market share in Europe by 2018
although much will depend on the evolution of world oil prices.
The need for personal mobility will still be with us. I
hope it’ll be better than what we’ve got now –easier
to drive and navigate, kinder to the environment.
If we move away from internal combustion, the possibilities for packaging
and interaction between the car and the city are staggering. We’re
moving from a mechanical age to one about interaction, electronics and
information. Biggest change in vehicle architecture for 100 years.
There will be social changes in the next 10 years with an ageing population
that demands mobility. Instrumentation and graphics will improve, ingress-egress
will improve. It may become possible to integrate things like electric
wheelchairs more easily. In the UK, more than 30,000 drivers are aged
over 90 today – it’s valuable to them. Rural communities are
getting older and are still remote from the advances in public transport
that cities are seeing.
New market have the potential to be quite radical. In China, predicted
growth lets you start from scratch to an extent.
Family groups are changing too. In Southern Europe, it’s normal
to look after your parents and grandparents.
Vehicles will get lighter and more recyclable. In 10 years time, we’ll
have a better idea of End of Life strategies. Cars may become more adaptable
and reconfigurable. It may become possible to upgrade them more over their
life. These could be operations performed locally.
Craftsmanship will disappear and will be replaced with new techniques
in rapid prototyping, which could conceivably deliver 3D parts to people
in their homes.
Car clubs could grow to become a market in themselves with products featuring
self-cleaning paint and interiors.
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