<<BACK TO HOME

OEMs could start to fit stop-start systems as standard on new vehicles in the next few years in a bid to reduce CO2 emissions. The technology is likely to be part of all new programmes by 2010. But the future for diesel and hydrogen is less clear, writes Susan Brown.

Speakers at JD Power’s automotive forecasting conference in London last month agreed the 130g/km CO2 target will be difficult to meet by 2012, but a longer-term target of 95g/km by 2020 may be achievable.

A range of solutions will be needed. These will include downsizing, more diesels, new powertrain technologies and advanced fuels. Not surprisingly, suppliers of engine technologies expect to benefit.

“No new vehicles will be sold without the option of a stop-start system within the next few years,” said Derek de Bono of Valeo Powertrain. “Europe will favour stop-start and regenerative braking because they can be combined with diesel. Full hybrids will be limited to luxury vehicles here, but may do better in the US.”

“Widespread adoption of technologies such as stop-start is the best way to deliver CO2 improvements quickly,” said Ian Kershaw of Ricardo Consulting. “Technologies must be applied to the mass market – a million vehicles with stop-start achieving a 7 per cent reduction in CO2 is better than 20,000 parallel hybrids with a 40 per cent reduction.”

De Bono expects that diesel’s share of the new car market could reach up to 70 per cent by 2020, with bio-diesel (B30) making up a significant proportion of this. But JD Power’s own powertrain forecasting team disagrees.

“The diesel market is saturated in some European markets,” said Alistair Bedwell of JD Power. “It is likely to increase to 55 per cent by 2012, due to tax changes in Germany and the UK. But in the long term, the financial case for diesel will worsen, as gasoline technology improves.”

Bedwell expects that diesel will account for around 50 per cent of the market in 2020. Gasoline will account for 40 per cent and alternative fuels such as biofuels, CNG or LPG will make up the remaining 10 per cent. Direct injection will account for around 35 per cent of the European gasoline car market by 2015, he said.

JD Power expects around 18 per cent of gasoline vehicles to have turbochargers by 2015. But turbo manufacturer BorgWarner is more optimistic. “Turbocharging gasoline engines will become mainstream. We expect 21 per cent of Europe’s gasoline passenger cars to have turbochargers by 2011,” said Günter Krämer of BorgWarner Turbo Systems.

Hydrogen is unlikely to become a viable fuel alternative until some time after 2020, said Ricardo. “We do see hydrogen in the future, but not in the short to medium term,” said Kershaw.

By 2023 or so, Ricardo expects fuel cells to be capable of reducing CO2 emissions by 56 per cent, compared to a 2004 vehicle’s average emission levels. They would cost around 30 per cent more than a 2004 powertrain and so could be competitive with future engines fitted with a full range of add-on “hybrid” technologies.