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New regulations and government plans to educate buyers mean there’s a big emerging market for safety systems in China – as long as they’re cheap. By Tristan Honeywill

Until six years ago, China had no mandatory safety standards, just national guidelines. OEMs had either to follow regulations laid down by local government or engineer to a general standard. Meaningful safety engineering was difficult and there was little consumer awareness of the issue.

Safety in China is still a complex issue. Driver styles are reckless. Ferrari might consider a Shanghai taxi driver to replace the elder Schuhmacher brother: it would have to fit a horn and an ashtray, but it would bring real aggression back to the team.

Some of the manoeuvres on China’s roads are unthinkable to a well-disciplined European driver. Undertaking other vehicles on the hard shoulder and slip roads is common. People often ignore red lights at crossroads and there is general disregard for other road users.

The results are grave. Some 100,000 people die each year in road traffic accidents in China. In the US, the figure is about 40,000. The vehicle population is roughly the same – about 120 million.

China is a different market with different needs to Europe. Average top speeds are far lower than on the Autobahn, so some parts, such as the brakes, may not need to be up to the same standards as on a Porsche. And cost currently still has precedence in buyers’ minds. Engineering a safe car for a few thousand euros isn’t easy, particularly if most think air-conditioning is a wiser investment.

As long as driver training remains rudimentary, safety is going to be a big issue in China. Yet despite the driving styles, Bosch says its research indicates it is marketable. “We expected it to come second or third, but we were surprised,” says Peter Kilgenstein of Bosch China. “Safety is related to family values and that’s top of the list of most Chinese consumers’ priorities.”

Safety levels are also changing thanks to legislation. China tends to follow the European model. Its rear and side impact regulations, introduced last year, are the same as ECE R34 and ECE R95 respectively. This year China is introducing regulations for frontal impacts based on ECE R94. Next year it will introduce recommended regulations for pedestrian safety, based on global technical regulations, prior to making them mandatory.

“Restraint system fitment rates have increased quickly since 2001,” says Frank Zeng, technical director at Autoliv’s Shanghai vehicle safety centre. “In 2001, just a few global OEMs’ cars had front airbags, maybe just 10 or 20 per cent of the market. Now most new vehicles have them. By 2010, we expect fitment rates will be 80 or 90 per cent.”

But while volumes are increasing quickly in the safety system market, fierce competition means price reductions are almost as fast.

“The current average price compared with 2001 is less than 50 per cent,” says Zeng. “And it’s still falling.” It’s clear that the premium price that Europeans pay won’t wash in China’s entry-level segment.

Autoliv is already some way toward low-cost airbag systems. Local OEMs tend to expect the supplier to take responsibility for specifying and integrating the system in its entirety, and to tighter than average deadlines. The cost pressure, time constraints and extra responsibility mean Autoliv is working hard to standardise its systems more.

The local supply base is developing too. More local parts are going into the systems. Despite receiving government funding, companies such as East Joylong of Shanghai and Jinheng of Guangdong do not invest as much in research, but they are competitive.

Other multinational suppliers are taking them seriously. “The average price in China is less than €10,000,” says Kilgenstein. “We’re focusing more resources to cover the low-price vehicle segment.” Continental already has a low-cost brake calliper for the Chinese market, but declines to name other developments.

TRW will have its low-cost calliper ready at the end of this year. “It’s where we’ll start to expand our product portfolio for the low-cost end of the market,” says Kevin Elgood, the company’s Asia-Pacific engineering director.

Delphi, too, is looking at low-cost systems for the market, but does not yet have any in development.

“Airbags are now essential for Chinese models,” says Richard Lind, safety director for Delphi Asia Pacific. “In the mid-term, more companies are starting to look at active safety. The first development will be in rear-view cameras.”

Jay Kunkel, Continental Automotive Systems’ Asia president, talks about China moving to even more advanced telematic safety systems shortly after Europe. “There’s a genuine opportunity for emergency call systems to take off here,” he says. “Government and the market are becoming more and more aware of the issues.”

Public awareness is soon to increase. The country has begun crash testing new vehicles for the China NCAP star rating. It will have the same effect on buyers and OEMs there as in Europe and the US. Vehicles with good ratings will have an advantage and safety will become more transparent and marketable.

Slightly slower than European tests, China NCAP involves a collision with a rigid barrier at 50km/h using a 50 percentile male Hybrid III dummy on the driver and passenger seats to assess injuries. A five percentile female Hybrid III sits behind the passenger to test the rear seat belts. The same dummies are also driven into a deformable barrier at 56km/h.

During the test, the deformation of the A-pillar, steering column and pedals are measured. The side collision test uses a mobile deformable barrier that impacts with the car at 50km/h. Cars can score extra points for seat-belt reminders and extra airbags.

Change will be slow. CATARC, the body running the tests, has said it will select just 10 vehicles that have been launched in the past two years for testing in 2008 – a small percentage of the huge numbers launched on the market in China each year. And they will look only at front and side impacts.

But, like everything in China, it seems, once it starts it will develop quickly. Rear impact tests will follow. The Chinese government clearly sees the new car assessment programme as a means of educating its inexperienced car-buying public quickly.

Although fuel consumption will not affect the safety rating, it will be included in the assessment.

China is considering plans to expand NCAP to include scores for vehicle dynamics, but there are no details yet. That could be very significant. In Europe, the automotive industry often finds it hard to get life-saving technologies on to the roads because of market intransigence. If the public doesn’t understand the difference between EBD and ESC, it’s hard to get them to buy into the technology.

China may have a lot of catching up to do in terms of vehicle safety, but it understands that it is not just a question of developing the technology: it’s just as important to cultivate the market.