Conti predicts combustion engine peak by 2027

Electrification will gain larger market share

Continental says that combustion engine technology will peak by 2027 before electrified powertrains begin to erode its market share.

The Tier one supplier predicts that by 2030, 69% of vehicles in mature markets – Europe, China, Japan and the US – will be electrified as firms look to reduce emissions levels and legislation becomes increasingly strict.

Conti’s member of the board for powertrain José Avila said: “We expect rapid growth up to 2030. By this time, almost 70% of new vehicles on the world’s mature automotive markets could have some form of electrified transmission. We expect cost-efficient 48V hybrids and all-electric vehicles to achieve the highest quantities.”

Gasoline and diesel will continue to play a key role in powering passenger vehicles, but the percentage of cars that use only a combustion engine will shrink significantly.

Conti is investing heavily in electric technologies, and with partner Schaeffler has developed a 48V mild hybrid research vehicle. By mating a charged three-cylinder gasoline engine with a 48V network it managed to reduce carbon emissions to 86g/km and it’s an area the firm hopes will see the biggest growth.

The Tier One already supplies 48V technology to Renault which uses it to reduce emissions in its Scenic MPV, but Conti expects its adoption to be widespread, especially in smaller vehicles where margins are tighter.

“By 2026 I expect the key powertrain technology for B-segment vehicles to be the combustion engine combined with a 48V hybrid system, while in the C-segment as well as 48V architectures I also expect full electric vehicles to be used more widely,” said Avila.

tags: Continental Schaeffler Powertrain